Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
Explore this paper's citation graph
Summary
A systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters, which produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation.
- Type
- article
- Published
- 2004-08-12
- Cited by
- 1,750
- References
- 61
- OpenAlex
- https://openalex.org/W2046759075
- Semantic Scholar
- https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:980153
Keywords
Range (aeronautics), Climate change, Climate model, Environmental science, Probability density function
References
- Antibacterial agents based on the cyclic d,l-α-peptide architecture
- Stochastic sensors inspired by biology
- Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change
- Climate Forcing by Aerosols--a Hazy Picture
- Controlling polymer shape through the self-assembly of dendritic side-groups
- Structural determinants of water permeation through aquaporin-1
- Artificial transmembrane ion channels from self-assembling peptide nanotubes
- The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments
- Objective estimation of the probability density function for climate sensitivity
- Self-organization of supramolecular helical dendrimers into complex electronic materials
- Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate
- Gigantism and comparative life-history parameters of tyrannosaurid dinosaurs
- Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
- The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3
- Measurements, Models, and Hypotheses in the Atmospheric Sciences
- Influence of natural variability and the cold start problem on the simulated transient response to increasing CO2
- Rational Design of the First Spherical Supramolecular Dendrimers Self-Organized in a Novel Thermotropic Cubic Liquid-Crystalline Phase and the Determination of Their Shape by X-Ray-Analysis
- Porphyrin and tetrabenzoporphyrin dendrimers: tunable membrane-impermeable fluorescent pH nanosensors.
- Solvophobically driven folding of nonbiological oligomers.
- Helical self-assembled polymers from cooperative stacking of hydrogen-bonded pairs
Cited by
- Towards a risk assessment for shutdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation
- Past, present and future rainfall trends in Queensland
- An Information Theory Approach to Identifying a Representative Subset of Hydro‐Climatic Simulations for Impact Modeling Studies
- Computational modeling reveals new control mechanisms for lignin biosynthesis
- Climate Change and Economic Development: SEA Regional Modelling and Analysis
- Prévisions hydrologiques d’ensemble : développements pour améliorer la qualité des prévisions et estimer leur utilité
- Modeling and dating glacier fluctuations and their relation to Pacific Ocean climate
- High stakes - designing emissions pathways to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change
- Climate Change Impact on Catchment Hydrology & Water Resources for Selected Catchments in Ireland
- The sOCiAL iMPLiCATiOns OF DeCArBOnisinG The neW ZeALAnD eCOnOMy
- Making the case for personal carbon rations
- Financing Adaptation to Climate Change with Climate Derivatives
- Changement global et cycle hydrologique : une étude de régionalisation sur la France
- A New Ensemble of Perturbed-Input-Parameter Simulations by the Community Atmosphere Model
- Notes on statistical modelling for complex systems
- Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs. Climate Change.
- On the effects of hydrological uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources
- Vulnerability to abrupt climate change in Europe
- A HYDRO-CLIMATIC MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ADAPTIVE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE GREAT LAKES BASIN
- Simulated projections for summer monsoon climate over India by a high-resolution regional climate model (PRECIS)
Related papers
- Beyond Positive Scaling: How Negation Impacts Scaling Trends of Language Models
- Corrections to scaling and finite size effects
- On the parameters of the Dixon–Nagel scaling procedure
- Beyond Positive Scaling: How Negation Impacts Scaling Trends of Language Models
- On the Use of Finite-Size Scaling to Measure Spin-Glass Exponents
- Inverse Scaling Can Become U-Shaped
- Inverse scaling can become U-shaped
- EFFECTIVE SCALING PROCEDURES FOR APPROXIMATE STRUCTURALOPTIMIZATION
- The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates