The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments.

Keywords

Relevance (law), Fallacy, Inference, Causality (physics), Population

References

• Imprisonment by Judicial HunchAlan M. Dershowitz — 1971
• Subjective sensitivity analysis.Baruch Fischhoff, Paul Slovic, Sarah Lichtenstein — 1979
• A case of radical probability estimation.M. Hammerton — 1973
• Sequential Memory for Pictures and the Role of the Verbal System.Douglas L. Nelson, David H. Brooks, Richard C. Borden — 1973
• How to Take a ChanceW. H. Williams, Darrell Huff, Irving Geis — 1964
• Judging interests from expressive behavior.N. L. Gage — 1952
• Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimationDon Lyon, Paul Slovic — 1976
• The Prediction of Dangerous BehaviorEdwin I. Megargee — 1976
• Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores.Paul E. Meehl, Albert Rosen — 1955
• Attribution and the psychology of prediction.Richard E. Nisbett, Eugene Borgida — 1975
• Human processing of inconclusive evidence from multinomial probability distributionsDavid A. Schum, David W. Martin — 1968
• OVERCONFIDENCE IN CASE-STUDY JUDGMENTS.Stuart Oskamp — 1965
• Accuracy and Consistency in the Revision of Subjective ProbabilitiesLee Roy Beach — 1966
• Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction.Icek Ajzen — 1977
• MENTAL HEALTH AND LAW: A SYSTEM IN TRANSITIONDana L. Farnsworth — 1975
• The Base-Rate Fallacy in Probability JudgmentsMaya Bar‐Hillel — 1977
• On the psychology of predictionDaniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky — 1973
• Causal Schemata in Judgments under UncertaintyAmos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman — 1982
• Man as an Intuitive StatisticianC. Peterson, L. Beach
• Judgment under uncertainty: Popular induction: Information is not necessarily informativeR. Nisbett, E. Borgida, R. Crandall — 1982

Cited by

• Subjectivity in decision making: Common problems and limitationsEllen Safley — 1989
• Vividness and Trading Behavior in an Experimental Asset MarketSudeep Ghosh, Tom Vinaimont — 2013
• The effects of mental steps and compatibility on Bayesian reasoningShahar AyalRuth Beyth-Marom — 2014
• Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: advances in support theory.Matthew R. Pincus — 1997
• Are you sure you're really telling the truth?Wm. Drew Gouvier — 2001
• Processing Consistency in Non-Bayesian InferenceXue Dong He, Di Xiao — 2017
• Straight until proven gay: A systematic bias toward straight categorizations in sexual orientation judgments.伸 福井, 一洋 佐藤, 正明 佐野 — 2016
• A case of base rate bias, or are adolescents at a higher risk of developing complications after catheterizable urinary channel surgery?Christine Guery — 2017
• The frequency presentation effect : determining its nature and consistencyTracy L Lindberg — 1995
• An Elementary Approach to Thinking under Uncertainty: A Prototype TextTal Marom, Sarah Lichtenstein — 1982
• When Oak Ordinances Fail: Unaddressed Issues of Oak Conservation 1Rudolph H. Light, Linda E. Pedroni — 2002
• The Influence of Case-Specific Expert Testimony on Juror Sensitivity to Confession EvidenceSkye A Woestehoff — 2013
• A Prototype of a Platform for Data-driven Approach to Detection of Cognitive BiasesAleksander Fafuła — 2010
• Lie detection: Cognitive ProcessesChris Street — 2013
• The Metaphysics of Mental RepresentationRichard De-Blacquiere-Clarkson — 2011
• How does contextual information affect our understanding of numerical probabilitiesErik Yngvar Nerva — 2012
• The Role of Causal Models in Statistical ReasoningTevya R. Krynski, Joshua B. Tenenbaum — 2003
• An information model of the construction cost estimating processClifford Hardcastle — 1992
• Object discovery and inverse physical reasoningChristopher Carroll, Charles Kemp — 2012
• An analysis of evidence-based medicine in context of medical negligence litigationCatherina Elizabeth Pienaar — 2011

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• The 4% Fallacy: R. I. P.Robert Kastenbaum — 1983
• Causality in the SciencesIllari, Phyllis, Russo, Federica, Williamson, Jon — 2011