Do Causal Beliefs Influence the Hot-Hand and the Gambler's Fallacy?

Keywords

Fallacy, Commit, Randomness, Psychology, Social psychology

References

• The production and perception of randomness.Junta de Comboyes — 2002
• Gambler’s fallacy?Frank A. Schmid — 2002
• Rational choice in an uncertain worldRobyn M. Dawes, Jerome Kagan — 1988
• Causal Models: How People Think about the World and Its AlternativesSteven A. Sloman — 2005
• Randomness and inductions from streaks: “Gambler’s fallacy” versus ”hot hand“Bruce D. Burns, Bryan Corpus — 2004
• BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERSAmos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman — 1971
• Subjective Probability: A Judgment of RepresentativenessDaniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky — 1972
• Superstitious responding and frequency matching in the positive bias and gambler’s fallacy effectsDavid M. Boynton — 2003
• The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random SequencesThomas Gilovich, Robert P. Vallone, Amos Tversky — 1985
• How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”Gerd Gigerenzer — 1991
• Making Sense of Randomness " Implicit Encoding as a Basis for JudgmentRuma Falk, Clifford Konold — 1997
• Apparent randomness is not always the complement of apparent order.M. Kubovy, D. Gilden — 1991

Cited by

• Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT)真司 桂木, 昭子 木村, 裕子 中島 — 2015
• The development of reasoning heuristics in autism and in typical developmentKinga Morsanyi — 2010
• An Examination of Factors Driving Chinese Gamblers’ Fallacy BiasLawrence Hoc Nang Fong, Rob Law, Desmond Lam — 2014
• What's next? Judging sequences of binary events.Leaf Van Boven, An T. Oskarsson, Gary H. McClelland — 2009
• Effects of Mood Induction and Bias-Inducing Contextual Cues on Decision Making in Gamblers and Healthy IndividualsBaldassarre, Carpentieri, Olimpia Matarazzo — 2015
• Predicting Outcomes in a Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler's Fallacy ReasoningKariyushi Rao, Reid Hastie — 2023
• The number of available sample observations modulates gambler’s fallacy in betting behaviorsYutong Li, Di Wang — 2024
• Predicting Outcomes in a Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler’s Fallacy ReasoningKariyushi Rao, Reid Hastie — 2020
• PERCEIVED MOMENTUM AND RESPONSIBILITY JUDGMENTS 1 Perceived Momentum Influences Responsibility JudgmentsJeffrey R. Parker, Iman Paul, Nicholas Reinholtz — 2019

Related papers

• Is the Gambler’s Fallacy Really a Fallacy?John A. Nyman — 2013
• The role of experience in the Gambler's FallacyGreg Barron, Stephen Leider — 2010
• The gambler's fallacy and genderSigrid Suetens, Jean‐Robert Tyran — 2011
• Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler’s fallacyJames Sundali, Rachel Croson — 2006
• Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand FallacySigrid Suetens, Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen, Jean‐Robert Tyran — 2016
• Explaining the gambler's fallacy: Testing a gestalt explanation versus the “law of small numbers”Christopher J. R. Roney, Natalie Sansone — 2015
• Hot hand and gambler's fallacy in teams: Evidence from investment experimentsThomas Stöckl, Jürgen Huber, Michael Kirchler — 2015